TileSight: A First-Principles Tile-Centric Analytical GPU Performance Model from Cores to Clusters

Recent GPU programming frameworks such as Triton, TileLang, and CUDA Tile adopt tiles as first-class primitives, making tile-centric programming the prevailing approach for high-performance GPU kernels. Performance-analysis tooling has not followed: programmers still rely on coarse roofline bounds, opaque ML predictors, or post-hoc profilers to understand kernel execution. This gap is acute for modern AI workloads, where kernel fusion and distributed inference depend on tensor cores, CUDA cores, cache hierarchies, memory pipelines, and inter-GPU networks. We present TileSight, a tile-centric performance-modeling tool that elevates the tile from a programming primitive to an analysis primitive. Within a GPU core, TileSight models compute-memory pipeline overlap; across cores, it models the cache hierarchy; across GPUs, it models inter-node communication. All layers share the tile abstraction: the intra-tile layer expresses work as a resource vector spanning network, memory, and compute pipelines; the inter-tile layer schedules dependent and ordered actions to expose legal overlap and infers multi-level cache hit rates from tile reuse distance; and the cross-device layer maps remote tensor accesses to placements and routes them through an alpha-beta stage cost. On A100, H200, B200, and B6000, TileSight predicts single-GPU kernel latency with 12.35% pooled mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), outperforming state-of-the-art baselines and transferring better across architectures. Its L2 cache-hit-rate predictions are within roughly one percentage point of measurements on every GPU. At up to 32 GPUs, TileSight achieves 16.18% weighted MAPE (wMAPE) on fused distributed kernels and 13.52% wMAPE on end-to-end vLLM serving. In optimization, TileSight selects tile configurations competitive with strong vendor and expert baselines. TileSight will be open-sourced upon publication.