Unequal risk: Longitudinal observation of socioeconomic disparities and pedestrian mortality patterns in Cali, Colombia — UC Berkeley

Household locations of pedestrian injuries and fatalities are disproportionately concentrated in lower socioeconomic neighborhoods, reflecting deep-rooted disparities in urban infrastructure, pedestrian exposure, and traffic safety. This study analyzes the relationship between socioeconomic levels and pedestrian incidents in Cali, Colombia, focusing on both the residential locations of injured individuals and the physical locations of fatalities. By separately examining injury residences and fatality locations, we begin to investigate how socioeconomic disparities influence both who is affected and where incidents occur. Residential injury data (2009–2010) and pedestrian fatality data (2008–2010) were analyzed using spatial mapping and Poisson regression modeling. Our preliminary findings reveal individuals injured in pedestrian incidents predominantly reside in lower socioeconomic neighborhoods, where inadequate infrastructure and increased exposure to traffic hazards are likely contributing factors. In contrast, fatal incidents tend to cluster in specific high-risk zones, particularly in middle-high socioeconomic neighborhoods characterized by dangerous road conditions and high vehicle speeds. Poisson regression identified socioeconomic levels and proximity to health centers were significant predictors of pedestrian fatalities, while road and population density showed weaker or nonsignificant associations. These findings provide an initial foundation for hypothesis generation and future research on urban safety disparities. They suggest socioeconomic context and access-related infrastructure together influence pedestrian risk, underscoring the need to integrate equity-focused and built-environment strategies into pedestrian safety planning and policy. By examining both socioeconomic context and physical risk, this study offers early, but critical insights for creating safer, more equitable urban environments.